Like his main ally, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Alexander Lukashenko says he does not want war, but political, diplomatic, military and propaganda activities show the opposite.
The scenario of a challenge through Belarus to be blamed on Ukraine is not ruled out, and Lukashenko is already preparing the propaganda ground for this.
“Will it be a war or not? Yes, it will be. But only in two cases: if a direct aggression is committed against Belarus and if our ally – the Russian Federation – is directly attacked, “Lukashenko said in a few hours’ speech to the population in which he wanted to position himself as possible. victim.
“If there is an aggression against Belarus, hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers will come, who, together with hundreds of thousands of Belarusian soldiers, will defend this land,” he continued.
Moscow and Minsk are currently working together to hold joint military exercises in Belarus, north of Ukraine. These military exercises are scheduled for next month.
At the same time, Lukashenko is in the final stages of amending Belarus’ constitution to relinquish non-nuclear and neutral status. “At the proposal of the President, the National Assembly shall decide on the possibility of sending soldiers, employees of militarized organizations and others outside the Republic of Belarus to participate in ensuring collective security and peacekeeping activities; and security, ”reads the new Basic Law that Lukashenko wants to save his regime, which was strongly contested after the August 9, 2020 presidential election.
In the style of state propaganda in Russia and the Kremlin, the Minsk leader accuses other countries of inflating spirits around Ukraine and downplaying Russian troops on their western flank.
“But the leaders of some countries have gone crazy. They think they can win a war. No one will win. We will all lose. That’s why we don’t want war. I’ve already fought. Our people have lost millions of people in past wars, “he said, without naming a specific country.
“We do not want to re-create the world, to cause trouble for our neighbors,” Lukashenko insisted, although he is the perpetrator of a migrant crisis on the border with the European Union. critics of his address.
According to Lukashenko, the Russian-Belarusian military exercises will help Minsk understand where a concentration of forces is needed.
The United States has recently told Alexander Lukashenko that it is facing a “quick” and “firm” response if it allows its Kremlin counterpart to use Belarusian territory to attack Ukraine.
“As I have clearly told Russia that it will pay dearly” in the event of an invasion, “in recent days I have made it clear to Belarus that if it authorizes the use of its territory for an attack on Ukraine, it will suffer a swift and farm from the United States and our allies, “said Ned Price, a State Department spokesman.
“If an invasion is launched from Belarus, if the Russian military is permanently stationed on its territory, NATO could also reconsider its position in the countries bordering Belarus,” the US official added.
Washington announced last week, in the midst of a clash with Moscow, that it was worried that ongoing constitutional reform in Belarus would allow Russia to deploy nuclear weapons on the territory of that neighboring country.
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